France loses influence in West Africa as coups spread from 2020 to 2025

France Loses Influence in West Africa as Coups Spread from 2020 to 2025

As of December 7, 2025, France"s influence in West Africa has significantly diminished, particularly under the presidency of Emmanuel Macron. The decline of French geopolitical power in the region has been marked by a series of coups and political upheavals that have reshaped the landscape of West and Saharan Africa. The situation has escalated to the point where France is projected to have no permanent military bases west of Gabon by the end of 2025, a development that symbolizes a comprehensive strategic rout for the nation.

Key Details

Historically, France maintained a strong presence in West Africa, exerting influence over 14 nations that utilize the CFA franc. However, this influence has eroded dramatically since 2020, with a series of coups occurring in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Guinea. These events marked the beginning of a rapid decline in France"s standing in the region, which has been characterized by an accelerating domino effect of political instability.

From 2024 to 2025, the political turmoil spread to previously stable allies such as Senegal, Chad, and Ivory Coast, leading to what has been described as the first democratic expulsions of French influence in these countries. This shift has allowed other global powers, notably Russia and China, to fill the void left by France. Russia"s Africa Corps has established a presence in five countries, while China"s trade dominance has expanded significantly in the region.

The implications of this geopolitical shift are profound. The southern flank of Europe, particularly in relation to its former colonies in Africa, has been described as "kaput." This loss of influence is starkly illustrated by the current U.S. travel ban list, which reflects the countries where France has experienced significant losses in its sphere of influence.

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Background

The decline of French power in Africa can be traced back to the broader geopolitical dynamics at play since the early 2020s. The rise of anti-colonial sentiments and the push for greater autonomy among African nations have contributed to the diminishing role of former colonial powers. France"s inability to adapt to these changing dynamics under Macron"s leadership has been a critical factor in the loss of its influence.

Moreover, the media"s coverage of these developments has been limited, leading to questions about the visibility of such strategic disasters. The notion that a significant geopolitical event can occur without adequate media coverage raises concerns about the narrative surrounding European policy sophistication and its implications for international relations.

What"s Next

Looking forward, the future of French influence in West Africa appears bleak. The loss of military bases and the rise of alternative powers like Russia and China suggest a long-term shift in the geopolitical landscape of the region. As France grapples with this reality, the implications for its foreign policy and economic interests in Africa will likely necessitate a reevaluation of its strategies and alliances.

In light of these developments, the U.S. State Department has issued a shelter-in-place advisory for citizens in Cotonou, Benin, highlighting the ongoing instability in the region. For more on this situation, see our previous reports on the evolving security landscape in West Africa.

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