JNIM Expands Control in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger Amid Security Collapse

As of November 5, 2025, the security situation in the Sahelian nations of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger has reached a critical point, with the Al-Qaeda affiliate known as JNIM (Jama"at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin) on the verge of establishing significant territorial control. The group reportedly controls more territory in the Sahel than the combined forces of the Malian and Burkinabe militaries, highlighting a dramatic shift in power dynamics in the region.

Key Details

The Malian and Burkinabe militaries have faced catastrophic failures in their operations against JNIM, despite receiving support from the Russian Africa Corps, formerly known as the Wagner Group. As a result, the governments in Bamako (Mali) and Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) are now on the brink of collapse under the pressure exerted by JNIM.

One of the most pressing issues for Mali is its inability to regain border access to Algeria. All military operations aimed at securing this border have failed, resulting in significant casualties, including scores of Russian operatives. Furthermore, Mali is now at risk of losing its border with Mauritania, exacerbating the already precarious security situation.

Currently, Mali and Burkina Faso have only one remaining access point to Niger, which is through Kantchari in Burkina Faso leading to Niamey, the capital of Niger. This narrow corridor is critical for both nations as they face increasing threats from JNIM and other militant groups.

In Niger, the security situation is also deteriorating rapidly. JNIM has expanded its operations into the northern and southwestern regions of the country. Concurrently, the Islamic State affiliate known as Lakurawa is increasing its foothold in the southern part of Niger, operating from northern Nigeria. This marks a significant escalation in the activities of extremist groups in the region.

For the first time, the Tuareg separatist group, the Azawad Liberation Front (AFL), has begun active operations within Niger, further complicating the security landscape. Additionally, Boko Haram has established its second-largest zone of operation in Niger, overtaking its previous stronghold in Chad.

Recent maps from Rerum Novarum illustrate the current security situation in the Sahel, contrasting it with conditions from July 2024, just 16 months prior. However, these maps do not depict JNIM"s operational areas in Mauritania, nor do they show Boko Haram"s activities in Nigeria and Chad, or the full extent of the Islamic State"s presence in Nigeria. The maps also exclude the positions of the Toubou Tribal Army in northeast Niger.

Background

The Sahel region has been plagued by instability and violence for several years, with various extremist groups vying for control. The rise of JNIM and its expanding influence is a direct consequence of the weakening of state authority in Mali and Burkina Faso, which have struggled to combat insurgency effectively. The involvement of foreign military forces, including the Russian Africa Corps, has not yielded the desired results, leading to a further decline in security.

What"s Next

The implications of this security collapse are profound, not only for the Sahelian nations but also for regional stability and international security interests. The increasing territorial control of JNIM and other extremist groups poses a significant threat to civilian populations and could lead to further humanitarian crises. As previously reported, the U.S. has advised its citizens to leave the region due to escalating violence and instability, underscoring the urgent need for a comprehensive response to the crisis.

For more on the recent developments in the region, see our related coverage.