Modi Resumes Direct Flights to China Amid Tariff Crisis, Strengthening BRICS Ties

In a significant diplomatic shift, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to resume direct flights with China next month, marking a potential thaw in relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. This development comes in the wake of escalating tensions with the United States, particularly following President Donald Trump's recent imposition of a 50% tariff on Indian goods, which has prompted India to pivot closer to its BRICS partners.

Background & Context

The relationship between India and China has been fraught with tension, particularly since the deadly border clash in 2020 that resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops. This conflict not only strained diplomatic ties but also led to a suspension of direct flights due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The timing of the flight resumption coincides with Modi's anticipated visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin on August 31, his first trip to the country in seven years.

Modi's outreach to China appears to be a strategic response to the growing isolation imposed by the United States, particularly under Trump’s administration. The U.S. has criticized India’s trade practices, labeling its tariffs as “obnoxious,” and has retaliated against India’s purchase of Russian oil with steep tariffs. This shift in U.S. policy has left India seeking new alliances and economic opportunities, particularly within the BRICS framework, which includes Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa.

Key Developments

According to sources familiar with the negotiations, the resumption of direct flights could be formally announced during Modi's upcoming visit to China. This move is seen as a crucial step in rebuilding economic ties that have been significantly disrupted since the border clashes. The pandemic had already halted direct flights, exacerbating the decline in relations.

While the resumption of flights signals a willingness to engage, it is important to note that the underlying tensions remain unresolved. Modi's administration has been cautious, particularly after recent military developments that saw China supplying weapons and intelligence to Pakistan during its military disputes with India. This has added another layer of complexity to the already delicate relationship between New Delhi and Beijing.

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Broader Impact

Experts suggest that Modi's rapprochement with China could have significant implications for India's foreign policy, particularly in the context of its relationships within the BRICS framework. The renewed ties with China may bolster economic cooperation among BRICS nations, especially as India seeks to counterbalance the effects of U.S. tariffs and criticism.

Historically, BRICS has served as a platform for emerging economies to collaborate on mutual interests, and recent developments indicate that the bloc is becoming more united in the face of U.S. pressures. As previously reported, every attempt Trump made to weaken BRICS backfired, further solidifying the coalition’s resolve. Modi's invitation to Russian President Vladimir Putin for a visit to India further illustrates his intention to strengthen ties with fellow BRICS leaders amidst rising tensions with the West.

What's Next

Looking ahead, the upcoming summit in Tianjin will be a crucial moment for Modi to outline his vision for India’s role within BRICS and its relationship with China. The announcement regarding the resumption of direct flights could be accompanied by discussions on trade agreements and regional security issues. Additionally, the dynamics of India-China relations will continue to be shaped by ongoing military developments along their shared border and China's strategic partnerships in South Asia.

As Modi navigates these complex geopolitical waters, the focus will be on how India can leverage its partnerships within BRICS to counterbalance external pressures and foster a more stable economic environment. With the global landscape shifting rapidly, the outcomes of these diplomatic engagements will have lasting ramifications for both India and China, as well as their respective roles on the world stage.