Sub-Saharan Africa's TFR expected to fall below replacement by 2040

Sub-Saharan Africa"s total fertility rate (TFR) is projected to fall below replacement level by 2040, according to recent assessments. Despite its vast geographic size, which exceeds that of China and India combined, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to peak at significantly less than 2.5 billion people, contrary to some estimates suggesting it could reach 4 billion.

Current trends indicate that most countries in Africa may fall below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman by 2040. Southern Africa has already recorded a TFR below 3.0. As urbanization increases and smartphone usage becomes more prevalent across the continent, the TFR is anticipated to decline sharply.

This demographic shift reflects broader changes in societal norms and access to resources, which are influencing family planning decisions in the region. The implications of these trends are significant for future population growth and development in Sub-Saharan Africa.