Sweden Legislative Election Nowcast: S 35%, SD 22%, M 18%, V 7%, MP 6%

On September 27, 2025, a nowcast for the upcoming legislative election in Sweden indicates that the Social Democrats (S) are projected to receive 35% of the vote, translating to 132 seats, an increase of 25 seats compared to the previous election in 2022.

The Sweden Democrats (SD) are forecasted to secure 22% of the vote, which would give them 83 seats, an increase of 10 seats. The Moderate Party (M) is projected to receive 18% of the vote, resulting in 67 seats, a decrease of 1 seat.

Other parties included in the nowcast are the Left Party (V), expected to gain 7% of the vote and 26 seats, an increase of 2 seats; the Green Party (MP), projected to receive 6% and 22 seats, an increase of 4 seats; and the Centre Party (C), which is anticipated to receive 5% of the vote and 19 seats, a decrease of 5 seats.

The Christian Democrats (KD) are projected to receive 3% of the vote, resulting in no seats, a decrease of 19 seats. The Liberals (L) are forecasted to obtain 2% of the vote, also resulting in no seats, a decrease of 16 seats.

This nowcast reflects significant shifts in the political landscape ahead of the election. For further context on recent developments in elections, see related coverage.