Turkey and Iran's influence in Syria has intensified following the collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024, raising significant concerns for Israel and its allies. The newly established Syrian Transitional Government faces immediate challenges, particularly in the northeastern regions, where the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) operate amidst a complex demographic landscape.
The SDF, a coalition of various ethnic militias, finds itself vulnerable as local Sunni Arab populations, many of whom support the Free Syrian Army (FSA), could fuel uprisings against Kurdish control. This precarious situation makes the region susceptible to a potential Turkish and Syrian invasion, which could be framed as a liberation effort by the Arab populace. The ramifications of such an invasion could reshape alliances and power dynamics in the region.
The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the growing Turkish military presence in Iraq, established after the defeat of ISIS in 2017. With Assad's ousting, the future of the Kurdish state in northeastern Syria remains uncertain, prompting fears that regional players like Turkey and Iran might consolidate control. This scenario has alarmed U.S. and Israeli officials, who are increasingly worried about the security of a vital land corridor in Syria, crucial for their strategic interests.
Speculation has arisen regarding a possible agreement between Israel and Turkey to partition Syria, reminiscent of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which had devastating consequences for Poland during World War II. As Turkey continues to assert its influence, recent developments, such as Turkey closing airspace to Israel, further highlight the deteriorating relations and the potential for escalating tensions in the region.
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