Tensions in Russia's fuel market are escalating as kilometer-long queues form at gas stations in Primorye, with wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel reaching unprecedented levels. Refineries are shutting down due to sustained Ukrainian drone strikes, which have left up to 14% of processing capacity idle during peak summer days.
Since 2025, the frequency and intensity of these attacks have increased. Ukrainian forces are targeting key facilities like the Ryazan, Novokuibyshevsk, Syzran, and Volgograd refineries, disrupting primary processing and hydrocracking units. The Ryazan Refinery, which accounts for 5% of Russia's capacity, has seen half of its operations halted, while the Novokuibyshevsk Refinery has suffered significant damage to its primary processing capabilities.
The strategic choice to target refineries is driven by their technological vulnerabilities. Most were built using Western equipment from companies such as Shell and Axens, which ceased deliveries after 2022. With the supply chain disrupted, Russia is now reliant on outdated stock and inferior Chinese alternatives, complicating repairs and leading to extended downtimes after strikes.
The geographical concentration of refineries in western Russia creates logistical challenges for meeting the rising fuel demands in the Far East. This imbalance has resulted in severe fuel shortages in regions like Primorye. As Ukrainian capabilities improve, previously secure facilities are now under threat, complicating Russia's air defense strategy and exposing its oil and gas industry as a critical vulnerability. The situation underscores a significant shift in the dynamics of the ongoing conflict.
