U.S. military buildup in Caribbean may aim to oust Venezuela's Maduro

The U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean may indicate a potential effort to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, according to the Crisis Group. The organization warns that Maduro"s regime has developed a strong resistance to such actions, having fortified the military against coups through fragmented command structures and loyalty-based rivalries. Officers within the military face severe consequences, including jail, torture, or exile, for dissent, which deters defection.

Leaders of the Maduro regime are reportedly taking precautions, such as swapping phones, changing locations frequently, and deploying untrained militias. There are indications that they may even utilize senior citizen units as human shields. The National Liberation Army (ELN), which has thousands of fighters, has pledged to defend Maduro"s government. Additionally, the presence of approximately six million civilian firearms and armed colectivos raises concerns about potential chaos in the event of a regime change.

María Corina Machado"s plans for a transition face significant challenges from entrenched chavista forces, which could lead to violence and instability. The Crisis Group emphasizes the need for diplomatic solutions rather than military intervention to prevent a catastrophic outcome in Venezuela.

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